2006 NFL THRILLS AND CHILLS

Part Two: The AFC

 

By Glenn Guzzo

 

            Few National League Football teams are without obvious strengths or weaknesses. In the Strat-O-Matic version of the 2006 American Football Conference, Indianapolis’ passing game is getting close to perfect, though. Its run defense is almost equally bad.  San Diego, Baltimore and New England’s Tom Brady have special strengths, too. Take a last(?) look at exciting Tennessee DB/PR Pacman Jones.

 

Here’s a look at the soon-to-be-released ratings: 

 

BALTIMORE

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        LT Jonathan Ogden, a 6 run-blocker, is one of four 7-rated pass blockers

Oh, No!           HB Jamaal Lewis is no threat on End Run

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        All three LBs are 6s and both outside ‘backers are asterisk pass rushers, too. A couple more 6s in the secondary and a line full of 5s. Excellent vs. Run, Good/Excellent vs. Pass, with an automatic interception at #12 on Long Pass, even with 0 Men in the zone

Oh, No!           Even in this brilliant defense, the Ravens can be burned Long

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        P Sam Koch and PK Matt Stover are both quality

Oh, No!           #2 PR and KR Cody Ross is crummy both ways, stealing returns from quality #1 man B. J. Sams

 

 

BUFFALO

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        SE Lee Evans Long Pass Wrong: +83 at #12, +77 at #3, LG at #4 and #7 plus 9 other catch chances

Oh, No!           OL, featuring 0 run-blockers at C, RG and RT and very poor pass blocking, may be overmatched every game

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Unlike most teams, yardage scarce on Long Pass

Oh, No!           Three 0s and no 6s      

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        The kicking, coverage and returns are all well above average

Oh, No!           Nothing to fuss about               

 

 

CINCINNATI

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        QB Carson Palmer’s passing, RT Willie Anderson’s blockig (7-6) and WRs Chad Johnson, Chris Henry and T.J. Houshmanzadeh’s receiving.

Oh, No!           Despite 1,300+ yards, HB Rudi Johnson is not enough to keep the defense honest

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Have to get to the subs for a highlight: DE Robert Geathers’ 11 pass rush

Oh, No!           Poor vs. pass, including no 5s or 6s at any of the five cover positions

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        Excellent kick coverage; strong FG kicking and punting

Oh, No            !           Extra-point misses on #11. -4 on non-mandatory penalties

 

 

CLEVELAND

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        TE Kellen Winslow has a star’s card with 9.8 yds per catch. QB Charlie Frye’s Flat Pass columns are tough to beat.

Oh, No!           HB Reuben Droughns is the worst No. 1 runner in the set. And he’ll get no help from a dreadful OL

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        ROLB Kamerion Wimbley’s (9*) 12 pass rush plus a 6 (SS Sean Jones) and two 5s in the secondary

Oh, No!           Big yards, few fumbles and a 3-4 with a 0 nose tackle (Ted Washington!) = Poor vs. run

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        KR Josh Cribbs’ TD; P Dave Zastudil

Oh, No!           Long Gain on kickoff coverage; FG kicker Phil Dawson is only 2-6, 11, 12 from 23-32 yd line

 

 

DENVER

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        HB Tatum Bell’s breakaway running ER (15 chances of Short Gain or better) and OT is far more consistent than last year’s hit-or-miss card. C Tom Nalen (7-6) anchors a strong middle of OL. FL Javron Walker provides much-needed big-time deep threat.

Oh, No!           See for yourself why QB Jake Plummer was cut mid-season – but not until after 317 passes … SE Rod Smith has got to rank among the worst Long Pass columns for any 50-catch WR ever

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Three 6s where they really matter: MLB Al Wilson, LCB Champ Bailey, FS John Lynch

Oh, No!           Though Broncos don’t yield many big plays, they don’t make many, either

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        Set’s best +5 non-mandatory penalties (only 1 chance for Denver penalty); excellent punt coverage

Oh, No!           Broncos still looking for a strong KO return man

 

 

HOUSTON

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        QB David Carr’s dynamite Flat Pass columns

Oh, No!           LT (Ephraim Salaam) is not where a 0-0 blocking OL can hide. The RBs average less than 4 yards per carry on their own cards – Wrong – and three 0-blocking OL won’t help them

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Yardage on plays not requiring defender’s rating surprisingly decent

Oh, No!           Low-low interceptions, no pass rush and three 0s in the secondary = Poor vs. pass

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        Nothing special about these mostly average special teams

Oh, No!           Long Gains on both kickoff and punt coverage

 

 

INDIANAPOLIS

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        With set’s best passing card, strong receiving corps and great pass blocking, QB Peyton Manning will pass without fear. LT Tarik Glenn, also a 6 run blocker, is one of three 7 pass blockers

Oh, No!          

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        FS Bob Sanders is a 6 again despite missing most of year with injury

Oh, No!           Poor run D has Short Gain at #7 on all three runs with 0 LB in zone. Front seven’s three 0s and three 4s won’t help

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        PR Terrence Wilkins’ TD. Adam Vinatieri is only FG kicker good 2-10 thru 32 yd line

Oh, No!           blocked punt, missed extra point and very poor kick coverage (Long Gains on both KR and PR)

 

 

JACKSONVILLE

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        Perhaps the best running game in the set – HB Fred Taylor great Off Tackle and HB Maurice Jones-Drew explosive on End Run (Long Gain, +74, +25 and 16 total chances of Short Gain or better) behind OL that goes 5-6-5-6 from C to TE

Oh, No!           A passing game made to frustrate – erratic QBs and receivers (many drops, not a single Long Gain)

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Few yards allowed on ground and air. Good vs. both run and pass – a rarity in this set. Twin 6s at DT – John Henderson and Marcus Stroud – and no 0s in starting 11.

Oh, No!           Only low takeaways, sacks keep this D from being Excellent-Excellent

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        KR Maurice Jones-Drew’s TD

Oh, No!           The punting – a block, and +11, +17, Long Gain in coverage

 

 

KANSAS CITY

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        Very special RB Larry Johnson gets the toughest yards inside and Right and breaks away on all three runs (17 chances of Short Gain or better on End Run). Two 60-percent passers provide fine offensive balance. Both guards are 6-run blockers and LG Will Shields is a 7 pass-blocker, too.

Oh, No!           Only Shields does much to protect the passers

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Nothing much above average, but Chiefs do have five 5s

Oh, No!           Poor vs. pass and 0s at both LE and LT with only a 4 LLB to help

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        PR Dante Hall’s TD. P Dustin Colquitt is reliable and coverage is good.

Oh, No!           FG kicker Lawrence Tynes is only 2-7, 11, 12 from 13-22 yd line (but 2-5 from 33-37)

 

 

MIAMI

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        Fumble-free offense: Both running backs and Rec/QB

Oh, No!           Nothing else to get enthusiastic about

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Excellent vs. run, with 6s at LT (Keith Traylor), RE (Jason Taylor) and MLB (Zach Thomas)

Oh, No!           Poor vs. pass on high Short Pass completions, two 0s and two 4s in secondary

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        KO man Olindo Mare’s 14 touchback chances (next best in set: 9 chances)

Oh, No!           Blocked punt

 

 

NEW ENGLAND

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        QB Tom Brady’s 15 Long Pass completion chances Wrong. LG Logan Mankins (7-6 blocking) and C Dan Koppen (7-5) on strong OL

Oh, No!           Drop-prone SE Reche Caldwell is the closest thing to a dangerous receiver

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Good to Excellent vs. both run and pass. Front in 3-4 are all 6s – Richard Seymour is a 6 at both DT and DE, with (1*) 12 pass-rushing, too.

Oh, No!           FS Artrell Hawkins is a 0. No 6s among Patriots’ once-vaunted LB crew

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        PR Ellis Hobbs’ TD at #3

Oh, No!           Long Gain on punt return

 

 

 

NEW YORK

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        HB Leon Washington’s 18 chances for Short Gain or better on End Run Wrong are the most in the set. C Nick Mangold is a 7 pass blocker

Oh, No!           QB Chad Pennington has only 7 Long Pass completion chances Wrong. Both OTs are 0 run-blockers

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        6-rated FS Kerry Rhodes and blitzing right-side LBs Bryan Thomas and Victor Hobson (both 5s)

Oh, No!           The defense cannot force a fumble. A 3-4 with a 0 at NT and RE is trouble.

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        KR Justin Miller’s TD at #3. Excellent kick coverage. Best-in-set +5 in non-mandatory penalties

Oh, No!           Blocked punt

 

 

OAKLAND

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        No strengths, but interception-prone QB Andrew Walter gets good better yardage than most on his completions

Oh, No!           Nothing but 0s for pass-blockers; OL has three 0s and three 4s for run-blocking. This is not the Randy Moss we remember.

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        A pair of asterisk pass-rushers, a 6 (LCB Nnamdi Asomugha) and a 5 at RCB make Raiders Good to Excellent vs. pass

Oh, No!           Unable to force a fumble and Poor vs. run

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        FG kicker Sebastian Janikowski is 2-6 from 33-38 yd line

Oh, No!           Horrific (and worst in set) -6 on non-mandatory penalties; Blocked punt and very poor kick coverage (though no Long Gain)

 

 

PITTSBURGH

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        A lot of big plays from HB Willie Parker and the WRs

Oh, No!           Both QB Ben Roethlisberger and Parker are high-risk, high-reward players – which means very inconsistent

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Excellent vs. run – a 3-4 that doesn’t need much LB help in run gaps, especially with 6-rated NT Casey Hampton, 6-rated LE Aaron Smith and a 5 at RE.

Oh, No!           A 0 and two 4s in the secondary; no asterisk pass-rushers, a Steelers rarity

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        PR Santonio Holmes’ TD; +4 in non-mandatory penalties; superb punt coverage (+1, +2, +3)

Oh, No!           Long Gain on kickoff returns

 

 

SAN DIEGO

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        Fumble-free offense, both the RBs and Rec/QB … 28-TD HB LaDainian Tomlinson not only breaks big plays, he cannot lose yardage on Linebuck Right. Backup HB Michael Turner has the most consistently explosive Wrong columns in the set … C Nick Hardwick and FB Lorenzo Neal (both 7-6 blockers) lead unit with all 7 and 5 pass-blockers and three 6s and three 5s for run-blocking

Oh, No!           61-percent passer Philip Rivers has 11 misses on Flat Pass Wrong

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        Dynamic ROLB Shawne Merriman – a 6 with (11*) 12 pass rush – leads front seven with four 6s and two 5s. The lone 4, LOLB Shaun Phillips, adds an asterisk sacker from both sides. 

Oh, No!           A 0 and two 4s in the secondary

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        #2 KR Antonio Cromartie has +91 at #3

Oh, No!           AFC’s best season team solid, unspectacular in all areas

 

 

TENNESSEE

Offense

Oh, Yeah!        With QB Vince Young, 17 must run chances is not a good play on first down. C Kevin Mawae is a 7 pass-blocker, 6 run-blocker

Oh, No!           Probably the worst Flat Pass offense in the set – QBs who can’t throw it, RBs and TEs who can’t catch it

 

Defense

Oh, Yeah!        RCB Pacman Jones and RLB Keith Bullock, both 6s

Oh, No!           Yards galore against team Average/Poor vs. both run, pass. Four 0s and no weak pass rush will hurt, too

 

Special Teams

Oh, Yeah!        PR Pacman Jones’ TD at #4

Oh, No            !           No complaints -- average or better in every category