THE TALK SHOW
Host: Glenn Guzzo
You can submit your question or insight on any Strat-O-Matic game to SOMTalkShow@aol.com. When you do, kindly include your name and town. Other gamers like to see that. And the display format below works better that way.
Reminder: Send us your “Great Moments in Strat” – your
playing experiences that you just have
to share.
Outfielder Throwing Errors
Many of us in The Sporting News Strat-O-Matic online
community are long-time board and computer game players and recognize that
there are some rules not visible on the charts that are basically computer-only
rules. But we are passionate about the online game and want to understand as
much of the underlying game rules as possible.
In this case we hope to
gain a better understanding of how throwing errors figure into our
strategy. A particular manager has seen
multiple instances of errors by his centerfielder, Mark Cameron, who in the
2006 game is a CF-1(e7). In most of these cases it appears that the error
could not have come from the fielding chart, and we’ve made the assumption that
the errors result from throwing errors. It could also possibly be a rare play,
but the situations don’t seem all that rare.
Certainly Cameron can be
expected to average 7 errors a season. But how do throwing errors figure into
that? Does that increase the 7 average, is it factored
into the e-rating, adjusted for computer vs. board play? How are throwing
errors determined, and what stats are the basis for computing
them? What would be a “normal” amount of throwing errors we should expect to
see?
Charlie Bell,
Don’t hold your breath waiting for Strat-O-Matic to provide
detailed answers to all of your questions in the final paragraph. But we have
some clues. The Super-Advanced Fielding X-chart allows for hits and one-base
errors on the same play. These errors could either be bobbles after clean hits
that allow all runners to move up, or errant throws. Additionally, worse
throwing errors can occur on contested throws when the batting team’s manager
challenges an outfielder while trying to gain an extra base. These errors would
be in addition to the outfielder’s normal error frequency. The frequency of
these errors would vary according to the aggressiveness of your opponents.
I offer separate answers to your examples
below, which suggest that the “supplemental” throwing errors haven’t been
occurring so often after all..
#1
0 C.Beltran 6 HBP b-1
0 1 R.Cano 7 Double & Error - CF 1-H b-H
0 A.Gonzalez 2 Single b-1
0 1 H.Ramirez 4 Double 1-3 b-2
0 23 A.Escobar 3 Strike Out b-0
1 23 M.Cabrera 3 Ground Out b-0
2 23 A.Soriano 6 Line Out b-0
Assumption - Cano hit a double and Cameron made a
throwing error?
Yes. Since Cano scored on his own time at bat, we can
assume this was a throwing error when Beltran challenged Cameron’s arm trying
to score from first on Cano’s double.
#2
Cameron makes a 3-base error.
Assumption - This one came from the fielding
chart?
Yes.
#3
0 C.Counsell 3 Double b-2
0 2 M.Loretta 2 Single & Error - CF 2-H b-2
Assumption - Loretta singles and this is another
throwing error?
This would come from the fielding chart – a Single** plus
error
#4
0 E.German 6 Strike Out b-0
1 B.Hall 4 Walk b-1
1 1 D.Ortiz 4 Walk 1-2 b-1
1 12 T.Salmon 4 Strike Out b-0
2 12 A.Laroche 2 Single 2-3 1-2 b-1
2 123 A.Ramirez 6 Double & Error - CF 3-H 2-H 1-H b-3
2 3 T.Hunter 6 Ground Out b-0
Assumption - Ramirez doubles and another throwing
error?
This also would come from the fielding chart – a DO** or a
DO*** and an error.
In summary, only one of these four errors occurred outside
Cameron’s normal error rating.
The Time of the Recent Mariner
I am a big Mariner fan and have been ever since I heard of Ken Griffey Jr. I have also collected a lot of the recent SOM Mariners team because I hope to have a 10-team league of just Mariners. I am missing a big one, though, 2001. I have 1982, 1990, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, but that hole is screaming to be filled. I ordered the 2001 teams at the end of the year sale last year, but by the time I ordered, it was sold out. Is there any way that Strat-O-Matic will reprint the 2001 Mariners anytime soon?
Eric Krentz, Eugene, OR
Not anytime soon. The most recent season
Strat-O-Matic has reprinted is 1978 and that was not a pure reprint, but an
update from a card set in Advanced format to one in Super-Advanced format. None
of the seasons since then are in “permanent stock.” They take years to sell
out, but once gone, they’re gone. I’m sure, however, that you can find a 2001
Mariners team in the secondary market.
HOF Player-by-Player Updates
I have been a huge fan of SOM baseball since 1975 and wonder why don’t you update the Hall of Fame set as new players are inducted? It would seem that you are missing out on the yearly additional revenue as opposed to waiting for a major update.
Also, I suggest that the set of 80 Hall of Famers is popular because it is all that you offer. Several players do not even have their best years represented (e.g., Honus Wagner, Babe Ruth). Any plans for a super season card set that would include the all-time best players for each team say from 1906 (or so) to 1950 and a second set of 1951 on? I hope you take this comments as constructive criticism – you have the best games!
Tom Burik, Erie, PA
If “as the new players are inducted” means
yearly updates, that would mean 1-2 players per season. That’s not an efficient
way to print, or to process orders. Long ago, Hal Richman said it would take at
least 16 players to justify an update set. So far, 13 players have been voted
in since Strat-O-Matic’s 2001 Hall of Fame set was published. That’s a 192-card
set well beyond the 80-card HOF set you mention. Have you missed it, or do you
just mean Basic-only cards that include the player’s best season?
As
mentioned here before, the all-time franchise sets create special problems for
a game researched in such detail as Strat-O-Matic. Each Major League season has
its own set of norms. If the set you envision involves players from 80-100
different seasons, that’s an intimidating research job. On the other hand, SOM
is only a handful of seasons away from producing every post-World War II season
in lefty-righty format. So something along the lines you suggest is possible.
It comes down to the game company’s marketing decision.
Playing ‘Em 162 Games At a Time
I noticed that an individual submitted some extreme performances to your Talk Show recently. He was referring to Morgan Ensberg, I believe. I guess the guy never heard the saying, “That's why they play 162.” He listed other-worldly stats put up in very short seasons and was taken aback that stuff like this happened. In 40-plus years of playing the game, I have witnessed some extreme performances that do tend to level out as a season runs its course.
I once set up all-time teams for each major league team by selecting the best cards from my collection of many thousands of cards. It was a Basic version, cards and dice exercise that was a joy to play. After 81 games, Frank Robinson of Cincinnati was running away with the RBI crown with 71. He tanked in the second half and limped home in that category. In the last game of the year he nudged a runner across the plate for his 100th RBI; yes, he only knocked in 29 runs in the second half of the season.
Just a few years ago for me, Mike Piazza had 29 RBI at the half-way point of a 162-game season. He went on a rampage in the second half by pounding homer after homer and driving in 61 runs to finish with 90 RBI. Last year my friend’s Derrek Lee had 36 home runs through 81 games. Stagger Lee popped just 12 dingers in the remainder of the season to finish with 48.
Field of Dreams told us to “Go the distance.” That’s good advice for anyone who wants to assess players’ performances in the Strat world.
Rick Zaborsky, Dublin, OH
Thank
you, Rick, for the excellent examples. This is a principle we all need to
understand if we care about statistical integrity. We further distort the
probabilities when we place players in different environments than the
stock-team seasons their cards are based on. Put a guy on a team with very
different teammates, very different opponents, in a significantly different
ballpark and you may have a great time, but please don’t expect his stats to be
unaffected.
The Case of the Mysterious MVP
I had an absolute blast replaying the 2006 Dodgers. It was a project I started just for the heck of it and ended up being so much fun. I completed the entire 162 games in less than three weeks. I had Lance Berkman and Kenny Lofton battling neck and neck for the NL batting title until the final week when Lofton went into a mini-slump and Berkman was benched by the computer once he got a one point lead. That’s one of the great things about Strat. During the replay, I was checking Houston after every game and seeing what Berkman did that day. Mark Hendrickson, Brad Penny and Greg Maddux were all 20-game winners. And the Dodgers won 100 games!
But there were some questions. Will Strat ever say how it calculates the MVP and Cy Young totals? Brad Penny went 23-5 with a sub 3.00 ERA and was beaten out for the Cy Young by Mets reliever Billy Wagner, who saved 35 games, went 6-2 and had a sub 3.00 ERA. I felt robbed. I know the formula for post-season awards has changed because in my draft leagues, the winners of my earlier years changed when updated to the newer versions of the game. The same thing happen in the MVP where Rafael Furcal hit .313 compared to MVP Jose Reyes’ .334 but outscored Reyes, 169-121 and hit more homers and had more RBIs. Reyes did have a SB edge 67-42. Reyes won by 19 points. I wasn't sure if fielding played a part, as Furcal had 29 errors.
Tom Gantert, Jackson, MI
I’ve
had the same eye-opening experiences, but SOM is not likely to divulge its
formula. The team’s fortunes seem, appropriately, to play a part in the
rankings and I think fielding could decide a close call. In your case, I’d have
to go with Penny, at least unless Wagner’s “sub-3.00 ERA was more like 0.87 in
a lot of relief innings. I could see why Reyes would top Furcal, whose “more
homers and RBIs” might not have been impressive enough in league-leader terms,
and therefore not enough to trump Reyes’ impressive BA and SBs.
I
look at the SOM rankings for entertainment and perspective, but choose my own
MVP, Cy Young and All-Star players for my replays.
Bob
Winberry adds “The logic for choosing the player awards is not as simple as it
seems. If you believe that a particular
award is a very bad selection then please send us a backup of your league along
with an explanation as to why you feel so.
Please make sure it is an egregious example, not just a borderline
one. I have tweaked these awards before,
and I will continue to do so in the future.
But I need good examples of situations that have slipped through the
cracks in order to improve the logic.”
Ice Time
We’ve
been playing SOM Hockey (board game) for 12 years. Nowadays, in hockey, an
important stat is the time spent on the ice. Do you think that SOM will one day
include time (numbers of cards played per period) in the game? This
would make the game more realistic, don’t you think?
LP and the rest of LNSOM (Montreal)
Maybe. But, unlike baseball, football and
basketball, hockey’s simpler statistics – counting stats rather than rate stats
– tend to be driven by ice time already. The high scorers got more ice time.
I’d love to have the ice-time stats handy as a playing guide, but charting ice
time and/or shifts would really slow down a game that has the considerable
challenge of capturing the continuous flow of NHL play.
He’s Ready to Rumble
I’ve been
an avid card-game player for almost 25 years and truly have a warm spot in my
heart for the hockey game. I’ve started playing the computer version lately and
have been enjoying it tremendously, but I think the elimination of the brawls
possibility is ill-conceived and lacking. I was grateful for an explanation as
to why it has never happened in hundreds of games played – the fact that the
teams could be shorthanded seems to be a realistic chance, and it’s too bad
that it’s been ruled out. Sort of like not having injuries in the other games
because the outcome could be upset. It’s hard to imagine the Avs-Wings or
Battles of Quebec or Alberta being emasculated. There are few things as
disappointing in the computer hockey game as having two AA players line
up, draw a penalty – and than have a bench-minor be the result.
Thanks
for letting me share my concern for an otherwise sound game.
Steve Walsh, Kalamazoo, MI
As a guy who thinks fighters should also get delay-of-game
penalties in the NHL, I can’t say the absence of brawls affects me the same
way. Still, a twin-penalty situation between a pair of AAs creates anticipation
– if it ends up as a bench penalty, that’s going to be a letdown. But fights
still occur in the computer game – as the help file explains, the “Brawl” event
in the board game has been replaced by a “Big Fight” designation in the
computer game. A true brawl – involving four or more players – is a pretty rare
event in the NHL, then and now.
Forced Integration
I run a
league where the AL and NL are only allowed to use players from their
leagues. The current game does not allow for me to separate the players
when I want to see who HAL would suggest is the best available player for a
certain position. Can the newest game have this function included?
Doug - Deerfield, Kansas
If I understand
you correctly, the answer is to create separate leagues for your AL and NL.
Then, release only that league’s players into a free agent pool. Then the
Draft-O-Matic “recommend” function will be limited to the players for that
league.
Armed and Dangerous
In my
2006 Marlins Replay, through the month of April, #3-rated Scott Olsen is
BATTING 7-for-8 with 3 runs, 1 double, and 0 Ks. It got me wondering: in
the modern era (say last 20 years), what would generally be considered as the
best hitting start (through April) for a pitcher? I have to admit, the
fact that Scott Olsen was hitting so well slipped by me since he obviously
doesn’t bat every day, so I’m sure pitchers hitting well in real life can go
unnoticed for the same reason.
Scott
Dicken, Fort Lauderdale, FL
If you have the database skills, maybe you can pull this information
from www.retrosheet.org. Otherwise, I
wouldn’t know where to look for it and I’ve got a very good reference library.
I think we can safely assume that an .875 batting average is best-of-the-best
territory, though surely some pitchers have hit for more power in the first
month.