2010 Pro Football Thrills and Chills, Part II (AFC)
By Glenn Guzzo
Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:
BALTIMORE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Flacco’s passes well at all distances, HB McGahee gets the tough yards and HB Rice is a force in the flat
Oh No! The OL offers no help running right and big plays likely will be scarce offense- wide
Defense:
Oh Yeah! The Good to Excellent run D is very stingy on yards, even without the helping LB in the 3-4 … Four 6s and five 5s, including a 6 and three 5s in the secondary to help a bad pass D card
Oh No! Pick your poison: The only blanks on the pass D cards for SP 3 Men (roll #5) and LP 0 Men (#12) and the INTs are low, too
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Billy Cundiff’s 17 touchback chances … #2 KOR David Reed’s TD … Dominant +6 penalty-chance advantage … Strong punting and coverage
Oh No! +34, +31, +40 kickoff coverage
BUFFALO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! FL Stevie Johnson’s possession-receiving card is a nice complement to SE Lee Evans’ LGs Wrong (3 chances Flat, 5 Short, 9 Long)
Oh No! Automatic fumble running guessed Right … Both OTs are 0 run blockers and all others are 4s
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Solid NT play from Kyle Williams (5 base D, 6 pass rush)
Oh No! Poor run D (only roll #5 is blank on SP 3 Men) and Poor pass D (Short Gains on both #7 and #8 on Linebuck and Off Tackle with 0 LB)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! C.J. Spiller’s KOR TD and his six PR chances of +27 or better
Oh No! Rian Lindell’s missed XP, only 2-7, 11, 12 FGs from 23-32 yd line, and only two touchback chances
CINCINNATI
Offense:
Oh Yeah! LT Andrew Whitworth is a 7/6 and C Kyle Cook is a 7 pass blocker … … Five WRs who can play will test nickel and dime backs
Oh No! HB Cedric Benson’s weak running will magnify QB Carson Palmer’s high INTs guessed Right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6-rated LCB Leon Hall … sub DE Carlos Dunlap’s 10 pass rush
Oh No! Blitz and pray: No starter has a pass rush rating higher than 3
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Superb punt coverage (+1, +2, +3)
Oh No! Missed XP on 11, blocked punt and a return game that almost never will help … Mike Nugent is an embarrassing 2-6 on FGs from 13-32 yd lines
CLEVELAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! 6-rated run blockers at C, LG, LT aid HB Hillis’ solid run card … With little help from their receivers, three QBs have surprisingly high completion cards
Oh No! When your most reliable receiver is TE Ben Watson, you know there’s trouble … QBs McCoy and Delhomme are INT-prone
Defense:
Oh Yeah! In pass situations, the 3-4 D fields LBs with 7, 9, 9 and 12(*2) pass rushers
Oh No! Very low fumbles and Short Gains across the board at roll #7 with 0 LBs invite foes to run
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Excellent coverage on both kickoffs, punts
Oh No! Phil Dawson is unreliable on FGs beyond the 22 yd line … Josh Cribbs no longer is a threatening return man
DENVER
Offense:
Oh Yeah! WR Brandon Lloyd explodes on every catch … QB Orton is very solid
Oh No! The run game is so sorry that QB Tebow might be a better choice for his Must Runs guessed Right
Defense:
Oh Yeah! LCB Champ Bailey is still a 6 and LILB D.J. Williams is a 6 with an 11 pass rush
Oh No! Seriously? This D (Poor vs. Run, Very Poor vs. Pass) has a better chance of giving up TDs than forcing turnovers or punts
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! #2 KOR Cassius Vaughn’s TD … 11 touchback chances
Oh No! LG on kickoff coverage and a missed XP
HOUSTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Foster’s 16 chances of SG or better on ER Wrong includes a LG on #3 … Running OT, Foster has +74 at #2 and LG at #3 … WR Andre Johnson is still a dream on Long Passes
Oh No! Nothing to dread except a defense that will force this team to score 30
Defense:
Oh Yeah! RDE Mario Williams is a 6 with 10 pass rush
Oh No! Your D game plan must include no takeaways … A secondary with three 0s, a 4 and still only one blank on SP 0 Men (roll #5) while yielding a LG on roll #4
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Neil Rackers is 2-6 on FGs from the 40 yd line
Oh No! The kickoff returners are pitiful
INDIANAPOLIS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Manning is great again … Four 7 pass blockers on OL (Center Jeff Saturday is 7/6)
Oh No! Both guards are 0 run blockers and both tackles are 4s. Colt RBs need a lot more help than that
Defense:
Oh Yeah! DE’s Mathis (6, with 11 pass rush) and Freeney (6 with 10 pass rush)
Oh No! Very low takeaways and a Poor pass D where the only blank is at #11 for SP 0 Men
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! #2 KOR Tyjuan Hagler’s TD … Vinatieri is tied for best FG kicker in set up to 32 yd line (but good only on roll 2 after that)
Oh No! 21 fair-catch chances and 6 net yards on punt returns … Long Gains on both kickoff and punt coverage
JACKSONVILLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Jones-Drew won’t break the long one, but he and backup Rashad Jennings are impressive ground-gainers anyway
Oh No! QB Garrard’s INTs and Must Runs are too high for the passing to work against solid defenses
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Sorry, LLB Daryl Smith (5, with 7 pass rush) is as good as it gets
Oh No! Poor run D (no fumbles) and Very Poor pass D (three secondary 0s, weak pass rush)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Mike Thomas’ PR TD … Superb punt coverage
Oh No! Long Gain on kickoff coverage
KANSAS CITY
Offense:
Oh Yeah! D foes better guess Right: HB Charles has no fumbles and 18 chances of SG or better Wrong in LB, OT and ER, with Long Gain on ER #10 and +80 on #12, while QB Cassel / WR Bowe are good enough to hurt foes Wrong
Oh No! Bowe is the only deep threat and the OL is inconsistent
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6-rated LCB Brandon Flowers and 12(8*) pass rusher Tamba Hali
Oh No! Hali is the only pass rusher higher than 3 … the Long Gains are plentiful and the blanks scarce in this pass D
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! McCluster’s PR TD on roll #3
Oh No! Blocked punt, long gain on kickoff coverage, weak kickoff returns
MIAMI
Offense:
Oh Yeah! No RB fumbles guessed Wrong … 7/6 LT Jake Long
Oh No! QB Henne’s SP and LP columns will make play-calling very tough … Almost impossible to score quickly with this offense
Defense:
Oh Yeah! ROLB Cameron Wake is a 6 with 12 (11*) pass rush … “Good” run D
Oh No! Takeaways will be rare on these D cards
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Dan Carpenter is good 2-6, 12 on FGs from 43-yd line (that’s nearly 50-50 on a 60-yarder), perhaps the best ever
Oh No! Blocked punt and Long Gains on both kickoff, punt coverage
NEW ENGLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! After record-setting year, QB Brady’s INTs are minimum chances on roll #12 (a first) … Brady’s only blank on SP Wrong is at #11 … He has 14 completion chances on LP Wrong … No RB fumbles … 7/6 LG Logan Mankins and four 5- rated run blockers on OL … 2 rookie TE’s who can go deep
Oh No! With Brady and the OL so strong, RB Green-Ellis looks like the ordinary back he was till his good stats in 2010
Defense:
Oh Yeah! “Good” run D despite pair of 0-rated DE’s in a 3-4 (NT Wilfork is a 6)
Oh No! Passing foes will be fearless against a Poor pass D (high completions, low sacks)
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! KOR and PR TDs … Excellent punt coverage
Oh No! Missed XP, Long Gain on kickoff coverage
NEW YORK JETS
Offense:
Oh Yeah! Three 7/6 blockers in C Nick Mangold, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson and FB Tony Richardson (RG Brandon Moore is 5/6) … No RB fumbles … Wildcatter Brad Smith is seriously dangerous ER Wrong (18 chances SG or better) … WRs Edwards, Holmes get serious yards
Oh No! QB Sanchez still looking for some touch
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Excellent run D forces fumbles … Two 6s, six 5s, no 0s
Oh No! Umbrella, please! LP 0 Men: The only blank is at #12, the INT is 2-3, 12 and every other roll is a potential Long Gain (looks like the CBs and SS are on their own) … Jets must blitz OLBs to sack
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Brad Smith’s KOR TD … Excellent kickoff coverage
Oh No! Shaky punt coverage … PK Nick Folk only 2-6, 11, 12 from 23-32 yd lines
OAKLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB McFadden has Long Gains guessed Right and Wrong for each run type and big plays galore … WR Jacoby Ford is a scoring threat from anywhere … TE Zach Miller is a legit deep threat
Oh No! Shabby pass blocking won’t help erratic QB Campbell pass downfield
Defense:
Oh Yeah! 6s at DLT (Seymour), LCB (Asomugha) … LLB Wimbley is a 5 with 12(6*) pass rush … the DL has 6, 7, 9 and 9 pass rushers
Oh No! Short Gains across the board at roll #7 in Average/Poor run D
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Jacoby Ford’s KOR TD at roll #3 … Janikowski: 10 touchbacks, 2-6, 12 FGs from 42 yd line … Punter Lechler: still 50 yds at roll #6, 42 yds at roll #10
Oh No! Long Gain on kickoff coverage … only 5 blank chances on the penalty card (-3 disadvantage) means many good plays coming back
PITTSBURGH
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Roethlisberger’s lowest INTs ever couples with exceptional SP columns, strong LP … WR Wallace gets +50 or better on FP (6 chances), SP (9) and LP (15)
Oh No! A 0/0 RG and a 0 run blocker at LT … Schizo HB Mendenhall gets SG or better, or else he gets very little
Defense:
Oh Yeah! The run D is Supreme and the SP 3 Men D is good enough to leave the FS in the LP zone … Six 6s (three of four starting LBs), three 5s
Oh No! A 0 at RCB and a 4 at FS are only blemishes on this great D
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! #2 KOR Antonio Brown’s TD
Oh No! Only one touchback and a Long Gain on kickoff coverage
SAN DIEGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah! QB Rivers is a force at all ranges … Serious LG receivers Floyd, Jackson, Naanee and Gates will overmatch most secondaries
Oh No! RB fumbles are 2-10 Right, among the highest in the set
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good run D and Good to Excellent pass D … LOLB Shawn Phillips is a 6 with 12(6*) pass rush … D has two 6s, and six 5s
Oh No! 0 at SS
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Nate Kaeding is 2-10 FGs from 23-32 yd lines … #2 PR Antoine Cason has 12 chances of +19 or better
Oh No! Mayday! Blocked FG on roll #10! (SD had four blocked) and a Long Gain on punt coverage … Only 2 touchbacks and a Long Gain on kickoff coverage
TENNESSEE
Offense:
Oh Yeah! HB Chris Johnson has Long Gains Right and Wrong for each run type … 7/6 LT Michael Roos … WR Britt is among the most dangerous in the set and has other deep-threat WRs Washington, Moss, Gage to take the pressure off
Oh No! High fumbles (RB Right: 2-7 and Receiver/QB 1-4)
Defense:
Oh Yeah! Good run D despite low fumbles … 6-rated RCB Cortland Finnegan, 12(1*) pass rusher Jason Babin
Oh No! Two 0s at DE, five 4s elsewhere
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah! Marc Mariani’s KOR and PR TDs … Great combo: Brett Kern’s punt yardage and superb punt coverage (+1, +2, +3) … Best FG kicker in set: Rob Bironas is 2- 10 from 23-32 yd lines, 2-5 from 38
Oh No! -6 penalty disadvantage may be too much to overcome most games … Long Gain on kickoff coverage
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