Shooting Projections from the Dazzler!

 This article was taken from The Dazzler – an online publication to help assist those who play Strat-O-Matic Basketball – where you will find other articles on both the computer and board games. If you enjoy this article by Dan, you can find other material written by him on The Dazzler.


2009-10 Shooting Rating Projections: Eastern Conference

By Dan Simpson


Based on my 25+ years of experience with Strat hoops and just plain old guesswork, I will give the chance as a percentage that each team’s prominent players get at least a shooting rating of 1 by Strat. Then I will offer a short comment for each team. First, let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference.


Atlanta – Joe Johnson 100%, Jamal Crawford 100% and Josh Smith 80% – J-Smoove had a nice scoring season and if rated, will get a nice card. If not rated, then his card will still be solid given that Atlanta is not a very good passing team.


Boston – Paul Pierce 100%, Ray Allen 70%, Nate Robinson 60% and Kevin Garnett 30% – Doubtful that both Allen and KG get rated. It is an annual guessing game as to which one of them will get it.


Charlotte – Stephen Jackson 100%, Gerald Wallace 100% and Larry Hughes 50% – Jackson annually is one of the league’s gunners and will get rated, as much as you often wish he did not. Wallace is the crown jewel on this team and should shoot it a lot more than Jax in a perfect world. Hughes might be rated too, but you will want to run on the court and stop him from shooting it after you see his card this year.


Chicago – Derrick Rose 100%, Luol Deng 80%, Flip Murray 75% and Jannero Pargo 50% – Rose emerged as the go-to guy on this team. With the departure of Ben Gordon and John Salmons, Deng should regain the rating that he used to have, giving him a good chance of having a decent scoring card especially with the poor passing on this team. Flip and Pargo are two more players that you will really wish did not have ratings, should they get them.


Cleveland – Lebron James 100%, Antawn Jamison 100%, Mo Williams 60% and  Shaq 20% – The real question is, will the acquisition of Jamison bump Mo Will from getting a rating and will Shaq gets a rating? I lean towards “yes” on Mo and more strongly “no” on Shaq. Shaq will have another nice inside column either way. Mo will take a slight hit on his scoring card if he does not based on LBJ’s expected max dazzlers on both half court and fast break passing.


Detroit – Rip Hamilton 100%, Ben Gordon 80%, Charlie Villanueva 80% and Rodney Stuckey 50% – Another tough team to figure out. The shooting in Detroit last season was just about as bad as the economy there. I doubt that all four of these guys get rated, but the odds are very good that 3 of them do. Whoever gets the ratings, hide the women and children when they fire it up.


Indiana – Danny Granger 100%, Mike Dunleavy 70%, TJ Ford 30%, AJ Price 25%, Roy Hibbert 20% and Troy Murphy 20% – This might be the toughest team to sort out. Granger is obvious, but after that it is a tossup. My best crack at it is that Granger, Dunleavy, and TJ Ford get the shooting ratings, but I could be totally wrong on the last two. If there are surprises, it will come from the Pacers.


Miami – Dwyane Wade 100%, Michael Beasley 80% and Jermaine O’Neal 25% – D-Wade is obvious, and Beasley likely gets it over O’Neal, who actually had a nice shooting season and is in line for decent card, with or without a rating. The big question though, is if all of Wade, LBJ, and Bosh get rated for the Strat 2010-11 season release next fall. My early prediction, yes!


Milwaukee – Brandon Jennings 90%, John Salmons 80%, Michael Redd 75%, Andrew Bogut 30% and Luke Ridnour 20% – The Bucks were a mess with their trades and injuries last season, so this is my best crack at how I think they shake out. If Bogut gets a rating, that will bump him up a few notches in the center rankings. Ridnour had his best shooting and scoring season of his career. So, if he gets rated, he’ll have a very nice card, though still good without it.


New Jersey – Devin Harris 100%, Brook Lopez 75%, Yi Jianlian 35% and Chris Douglas-Roberts 25% – Harris had a poor season but should be rated again for the hapless Nets. Brook Lopez also is likely to receive a rating and he should have a decent, but not great, card. A third rating could go to the uninspiring Jianlian or CDR.


New York – Al Harrington 100%, David Lee 60%, Danilo Gallinari 50% and Wilson Chandler 20% – Harrington is a shoo-in, and Lee upped his shooting enough to make me believe that he has a better than 50-50 chance be rated. I think Gallinari is 50-50 in receive a rating. I can see Strat giving him the rating and not giving one to Lee, however, especially given that Lee’s card is going to be significantly better than either Harrington’s or Gallinari’s card. There is an outside chance of Chandler getting a rating also, likely at the expense of one or two of the other three guys.


Orlando – Dwight Howard 100%, Vince Carter 90% and Ryan Anderson 60% – Even though the Magic unwisely did not get Superman as many shots this past season, he still gets a rating by default. Vinsanity is aging, but that never seems to stop certain guys from chucking, so his annual rating is probably safe. Ryan Anderson is a gunner off the bench who I can see getting a rating.


Philadelphia – Andre Iguodala 100%, Louis Williams 80% and Marreese Speights 80% – Philly was pretty bad last year, but all three of these guys had pretty good shooting and scoring seasons. It is very possible that all three get rated.


Toronto – Chris Bosh 100%, Andrea Bargnani 90%, Marco Belinelli 25% – Should not be any big surprises on the Raptors. I expect Bosh and Bargnani to repeat as the only two rated shooters with an outside shot at Belinelli joining them.


Washington – Gilbert Arenas 100%, Josh Howard 80%, Andray Blatche 75% and Nick Young 70% – Arenas is always a high-volume shooter, whether it involves a basketball, a gun, or his mouth. Howard had an awful season but that did not stop him from clanking a high number of shots, so he should be rated again. Blatche stands a good chance to get rated since he was there the entire season and played almost every game, unlike most of the rest of the team. Nick Young also stands a pretty good chance of keeping his rating.


You can find the shooting rating projections for the Western Conference at The Dazzler: