2014 NFL Thrills and Chills (AFC)

2014 NFL Thrills and Chills, Part II (AFC)
 
By Glenn Guzzo
 
            Here’s a brief summary of the highlights and lowlights of Strat-O-Matic’s new football ratings:
 
BALTIMORE
Offense:
Oh Yeah!             “See-Ya” Forsett card, the only runner with LG Right … Deep-threat receivers led by Max LP for WR Torrey Smith … Both guards (7,6); 7 pass block at RT
Oh No!             1-4 Rec&QB Fumble
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!          Excellent vs run … RILB Smith (65), LOLB Suggs (46) + (3*)12 pass rush … sub OLBs can bring it on pass rush: Dumervil (8*)12, McPhee 11
Oh No!            Poor vs pass, especially the possible 19+ LGs on LP 0 Men, no pass rush up front
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           KR TD … 24 deep KO chances … P Koch (50-73yds 2-6) + strong PR coverage … top FG: 2-10 at 32 yd line; 2-6,12 at 38
Oh No!             High penalty frequency for Ravens, foes
 
BUFFALO
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           Probably QB Orton’s best card … LT Glenn (7,5)
Oh No!             RB fumbles (2-7 Right) … 0 run block at both guards, RT
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!          Excellent vs pass (top INT card) / Good vs run (forces fumbles) … Eight 5s and 6s vs pass, 9 vs run … LE Mario Williams (6) and (4*)12 pass rush leads DL with three 6s, three pass rushers at 11 or better
Oh No!             Susceptible to LG with FS out of zone
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           Spiller KR TD on #4 … PR TD … superb KR, PR coverage … 2-7 FG from 41yd line
Oh No!             -3 penalty differential
 
CINCINNATI
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           LT Whitworth (7,6) leads strong run/pass block team … HB Hill gets tough yards, breaks long runs (85, 62, 60) … HB Bernard’s FP, +89 on ER Wrong … WR Green’s max SP, LP w/11 LG Wrong chances of LG or better
Oh No!             Coaches will ask QB Dalton, “Whose side are you on?”
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           FS Nelson (65)
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs run (two 0s, three 4s in front 7) … LE Dunlap (9) only pass rush better than 4 – all LBs are 0
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           Even without TDs, Pacman Jones dangerous as KR/PR … P Huber (50+ yds 2-7)
Oh No!             Only 9 deep KO chances … LG on punt coverage
 
CLEVELAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           LT Thomas (7,6), LG Bitonio (7,5) … Minimum RB fumbles … TE Cameron’s LG chances or better: FP-4, SP-6, LP-9
Oh No!             C McDonald (0,0), RT Schwartz (4,0) … Passing/Receiving is a mess
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Good vs pass w/high takeways (INT+fumbles) … LOLB Kruger (5*)12 pass rush … Three 6s (Haden, Gipson, Dansby), two 5s vs pass
Oh No!             Average to poor vs run (SG on #7,8 OT, even at #7 on Linebuck w/1 LB) with 4-0-0 on DL
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!            Solid punting w/excellent coverage
Oh No!             -4 penalty differential … No kick return more than +39
 
DENVER
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Manning seldom misses (completes Wrong: SP-24, LP-14) … Elite WR D. Thomas has max receptions (FP, SP, LP), WR Sanders has max FP, SP and nearly max LP … HB Anderson’s FP, Wrong running makes him valuable complement … OL has four 7 pass blockers … Both Team Pass Block, Rec&QB Fumbles are blank w/minimum RB fumbles
Oh No!             What’s to complain about?
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Excellent vs run, stingy with yards … LLB Miller (56) with (4*)12 pass rush … RE Ware (6) with 10 pass rush … twin 6s at CB
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs pass despite CBs (only blanks: SP 3 Men at #12, LP 0 Men at #11, 12) … Miller/Ware only pass rushers better than 4
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           Solid punting, placekicking
Oh No!             LG on PR coverage … high penalty rate
 
HOUSTON
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           LT Brown (7,6), RG Brooks (7,6), C Myers (5,6) … HB Foster’s FP, all-around running … WR Hopkins’ max LP
Oh No!             Typical inconsistent QB Fitzpatrick: Can lead a TD drive and throw it away … Only Hopkins offers receiver LGs
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Good vs run … RE Watt: (6) with (9*)12 pass rush … LCB Jackson (6)
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs pass (LGs everywhere but #12 on LP 0 Men)
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           2-6, 12 FG from 38 yd line
Oh No!             Blocked punt … Very weak kick returns
 
INDIANAPOLIS
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           Four pass-blocking 7s … LT Castonzo (7,5) … QB Luck’s 13 LP Wrong completes and very strong receiver corps … HB Bradshaw’s max FP, YAC-A; his best-in-set SP makes him attractive TD target … WR Hilton’s max SP, LP … Twin TE receiving threats Fleener, Allen
Oh No!             RB fumbles: 2-7, 11,12 Right … Lead HB Richardson’s 3.3 average
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Average to Good vs run; forces fumbles … RCB Davis (6), SS Adams (64)
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs pass w/few INTs, LCB 0; lots of yards vs run … no double-digit pass rushers (4-0-3 on DL)
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           P McAfee: 50+ yds 2-6 and PR coverage (+1,2,6) … 24 deep KO chances … 2-6 FG from 37 yd line
Oh No!
 
JACKSONVILLE
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Bortles a decent passer Wrong, and is dangerous runner (23 SG or better ER Wrong; MR of +34, +29, +21, +15, +11) … Rookie RG Linder (5 run block) … Minimum RB fumbles
Oh No!             Bortles’ disastrous INTs Right and he’s by far the team’s best runner … RT Pasztor (0,0), LT Joeckel (2,0) … 3 is best in pass block
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!          Good at forcing fumbles … LE Bryant (6), LT Marks (5) with (1*)12 pass rush
Oh No!             Poor vs pass w/rare INTs, three 0s and a 4 in secondary … Run D: SGs across the board at #7 w/0 LB
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           Solid placekicking, kickoffs, kick coverage … 2-6 FG from 37 yd line
Oh No!             Blocked punt … -4 penalty differential
 
KANSAS CITY
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Smith’s FP, SP … HB Charles’ LG on #4 ER Wrong (with +63 on #2, +39 on #12) … Sherman tank: 7,6 FB … HB/FL Thomas’ SG-filled OT/ER Wrong
Oh No!             No receiver has a LG … Both guards 0 run block … No OL pass blocker better than 4
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Can’t get better: LOLB Houston (66) with (12*)12 pass rush … More 6s: NT Poe, RCB Smith, ROLB Hali (64), FS Abdullah (64) … Better LP w/0Men than most, especially w/FS Abdullah home
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs. run: SG on #7,8 OT w/O LB; even #7 Linebuck w/1 LB … Both ILB 0 vs run … LCB Gaines (0)
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           TDs on KR, PR … Solid punting w/excellent coverage (+2, +5, +4)
Oh No!             Only 10 deep kickoff chances
 
MIAMI
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Tannehill’s FP, running … HB Miller’s FP, +97 on ER Wrong, 30 chances of SG or better Wrong across his card … LT Albert (7,5)
Oh No!             LG, RT both 3,0 blockers … WR Wallace the only deep threat … No WR, TE better than YAC-C
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           LE Wake (6) w/(2*)12 pass rush … LCB Grimes (6), SS Jones (56)
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs. run w/SG across the board at #7 w/0 LB … 0 at LT … LLB Wheeler (04) w/0 pass rush
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           2-6 FG from 37 yd line … +4 penalty differential
Oh No!             Blocked punt blemishes Fields’ booming punts … LG on KR coverage
 
NEW ENGLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Brady’s perfect FP Wrong, 26 completes SP Wrong … TE Gronkowski is a beast w/max FP, SP, big plays and YAC-B … Pass block: three 7s (both tackles), four 5s … Blank Rec&QB Fumble, minimum RB fumbles … HB Vereen’s all-purpose receiving, YAC-A
Oh No!             No elite WR or RB
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Six men have at least one 6 in rating: LT Wilfork (6), LLB Hightower (66) w/9 pass rush, RLB Collins (56), LCB Revis (6), FS McCourty (66), SS Chung (46)
Oh No!             Average to Poor vs pass w/dangerous LP 0Men … MLB Ayers (04) after unrated Mayo lost for year
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           PR TD … Good kick coverage … FG 2-10 from 32 yd line
Oh No!             Blocked punt, -3 penalty differential
 
NEW YORK JETS
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           C Mangold (7,6) … HB Ivory gets tough yards, has +71 OT Wrong
Oh No!             LG Aboushi (0,4), RG Colon (5,0) … Geno is a coward: QB Smith has more MR than SP+LP completes Wrong, more INT than LP completes Right … WR Decker the only receiver worth double-coverage
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           All 6s on the DL of this 3-4 D
Oh No!             Very Poor vs pass – No kidding! There are NO blanks for SP 3 Men, few INTs, 0s at both CB
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           2-6 FG from 38 yd line … Good kick coverage
Oh No!             Blocked punt … Only 11 deep KO chances
 
OAKLAND
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           LT Penn (7,5) one of four starters w/7 pass block … HB Murray’s +90 ER Wrong
Oh No!             2-7 RB Fumbles Right … 1-4 Rec&QB Fumble … What a lead HB w/3.4 average looks like: McFadden’s ER Wrong has 0, 0, -1, +1, +1, +2, +2
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Rookie LLB Mack’s promising debut (46) w/team-best 7 pass rush
Oh No!             Very Poor vs pass / Average to Poor vs run … Raider D plays honest = unlikely pass thefts, forced fumbles … Invisible Man MLB Burris: (00) w/0 pass rush … Nothing better than 4 in coverage, nothing better than 7 pass rush
           
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           Big Foot Janikowski: 2-10 FG from 32 yd line, 2-6 from 40 … 23 deep kickoff chances
Oh No!             Can’t KO deep enough for this coverage: +52, +50, +36 … LG on PR
 
PITTSBURGH
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           QB Roethlisberger completes Wrong: FP-25, SP-22, LP-12 w/minimum INTs … Man crushes for HB Bell’s running (tough yards, LG and +81 OT Wrong, LG and +53 ER Wrong) and receiving (max FP, YAC-A, 18 catch chances SP Wrong) … WR Brown’s max FP, SP … WR Bryant’s LG or better chances Wrong: FP-6, SP-9, LP-16 (with +94, +80 in LP) … C Pouncey (7,6), LT Beachum (7,5)
Oh No!             Worst about this elite offense are the two 4,4 guards (picky, picky)
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Good vs run w/help from SS Polamalu (46), RILB Timmons (5,6)
Oh No!             Choose your poison with this Very Poor D vs pass: LG on #4 SP 3Men, LG-filled LP 0Men, w/few INTs … RCB McCain (0)
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           PR TD … Nice PR coverage (+7, +8, +3) … 2-10 FG from 32 yd line
Oh No!             Blocked punt … LG on KR coverage
 
SAN DIEGO
Offense:
Oh Yeah!          QB Rivers’ completes Wrong: FP-25, SP-22, LP-13 … LT Dunlap (7,5) … Blank                         Rec&QB Fumble … Minimum RB fumbles … TE Gates’ max FP, SP and 15 catch chances LP Wrong … HBs Oliver, D. Brown’s max FP w/YAC-A,B
Oh No!             0 run block at TE, RG, C, LG … Cliff drop for WR Allen, TE Green’s yards
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           FS Weddle (66)
Oh No!             Poor vs pass / Average to Poor vs run … Few INTs; no pass rush higher than 7; 0 coverage at RILB, RCB, SS … SG on #7,8 OT w/0 LB, even on #7 Linebuck w/1 LB
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           +4 penalty differential … 2-6 FG from 37 yd line
Oh No!             Blocked punt … Worst KO team: NO -8/-9 kicks
 
TENNESSEE
Offense:
Oh Yeah!           TE Walker: 6 block and consistent catch threat with +68, +61, LG in LP Wrong … Minimum RB fumbles … Variety of LP receiving threats
Oh No!             None of 3 QBs have winning cards … RT Oher (3,0) … No YAC higher than C
 
Defense:
Oh Yeah!           Best to offer is LOLB Morgan (54) w/10 pass rush and the 5s at LE, RE
Oh No!             Poor vs run and pass … No forced fumbles, few INTs … SG on #7,8 OT w/0 LB, even on #7 Linebuck w/1 LB … Two 0s, two 4s in secondary coverage
 
Special Teams:
Oh Yeah!           PR coverage (+9, +5, +3)
Oh No!             Yikes: -6 penalty differential … Blocked punt … KO coverage (+37, +31, LG)